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Nvidia’s already skyrocketing shares soar another 8%

Nvidia, already the star of the tech industry’s race toward artificial intelligence computing, delivered another stunningly strong quarterly revenue forecast, fueled by surging demand for its AI processors.

The shares soared more than 8% in extended trading after Nvidia said sales will be about $16 billion in the three months ending in October. Analysts had estimated just $12.5 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nvidia’s results last quarter also blew past projections, and it approved an additional $25 billion in stock buybacks.

The outlook underscores Nvidia’s role as the key beneficiary of the AI computing boom. Faced with skyrocketing demand for chatbots and other tools, data center operators are stocking up on the company’s processors, which are adept at handling the heavy workloads required by artificial intelligence. That’s helped Nvidia quickly pull out of an industrywide chip slump and accelerate sales growth to its fastest rate in years.

“A new computing era has begun,” Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said in a statement. Companies around the world are shifting from a general-purpose approach to one that can handle accelerated computing and ChatGPT-style generative AI, he said.

The post-market gain adds to a more than threefold increase for the stock this year. The shares had closed at $471.16 in New York on Wednesday before Nvidia released its quarterly report.

In the fiscal second quarter, which ended July 30, revenue doubled to $13.5 billion, the Santa Clara, California-based company said. Profit was $2.70 a share, minus certain items. Analysts had predicted sales of about $11 billion and profit of $2.07.

Nvidia became the first-ever semiconductor company to rack up a $1 trillion market valuation after another blowout quarter in May. It has emerged as the main supplier of infrastructure needed to support the growing use of AI systems. But investors have been waiting for more evidence that the second quarter was the beginning of a long-term expansion and not a one-time spike. What they got Wednesday was even more bullish than hoped.

Underscoring Nvidia’s dramatic growth, this quarter’s revenue target is 28% above Wall Street projections and nearly as high as the company’s total annual sales in 2021.

Nvidia was co-founded in 1993 by Huang, who still runs the company. He’s successfully parlayed a business making graphics chips for video games into dominance of the market for so-called accelerators — chips that help train AI software by bombarding it with data. Nvidia’s rapid introduction of ever-more powerful processors — along with accompanying software — has left would-be rivals trailing far behind. Customers such as Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s. Google, meanwhile, are lining up to take as many chips as Nvidia can supply.

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says:

“A significant 2Q beat and raise, a repeat of 1Q’s performance, suggests sustained demand strength in Nvidia’s Data Center (DC) business, while guidance 29% above consensus for 3Q implies the company may get its hands on better-than-expected supply. Gross-margin upside (112 bps above consensus) is likely to continue as the DC contribution rises.”

Like many of its peers, Nvidia doesn’t operate its own chip production and relies on outsourced manufacturing provided by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. That arrangement frees it from the huge expenditure and risks of investing in manufacturing. But it also gives it less ability to adjust supply quickly.

There were concerns that supply constraints could hamper Nvidia’s sales in the current quarter, but its forecast suggested that operations are running smoothly.

Nvidia’s division that supplies chips to data centers — once a sideline business — has become its biggest moneymaker. The unit had sales of $10.3 billion last quarter, versus an estimate of $7.98 billion. Gaming revenue was $2.49 billion, compared with an average analyst prediction of $2.38 billion. Automotive-related chips brought in $253 million.

AI has been the hottest topic for tech investors this year, and every major company has talked up its capabilities in that area. But Nvidia is one of the few making serious money from the trend, which has accelerated since the public debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November. That tool helped show the stunning potential of generative AI to a broader audience.

Nvidia’s stock run-up of more than 200% this year has eclipsed the gains of all others in the closely watched Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index.

Nvidia also has become more important as a tech industry bellwether. The chipmaker’s forecasts provide a window into the plans of some of the world’s most valuable companies — and indicate how much those businesses are willing to spend to overhaul computer systems to accommodate AI.

Other chipmakers, meanwhile, are striving to catch up with Nvidia in AI processors, including top PC chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Intel Corp. But Nvidia has continued to upgrade its products and release related software and services, aiming to keep its edge.

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